By Elisha Singira

The Horn of Africa is entering a fifth consecutive failed rainy season. This is according to the 62nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF62) convened by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Predictions and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the region.

ICPAC announced that the October to December 2022 forecast showed strong chances of being drier than average conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. In essence, the drought conditions affected the regions of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia hence are expected to receive very little water until the end of the year.

Moreover, the poor conditions are predicted to extend to parts of Eritrea and most of Uganda and Tanzania, whereas Djibouti, the eastern Afar region of Ethiopia, and central to northeastern South Sudan could receive above-average precipitations. Temperatures shall remain warmer than average across most of the region.

Dr. Guleid Artan, ICPAC’s Director, reiterated the importance of the October to December season in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa where it contributes up to 70% of the annual total rainfall, particularly in eastern Kenya.

“It pains me to be the bearer of bad news, when millions of people in the region have already suffered the longest drought in 40 years. Sadly, our models show with a high degree of confidence that we are entering the fifth consecutive failed rainy season in the Horn of Africa. The situation is particularly dire in the worst hit regions of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia where we are on the brink of an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe,” added Dr. Guleid Artan.

Dr. Workneh Gebeyehu, Executive Secretary of IGAD echoed the severity of the situation. He said, “A month ago, with our partners FAO and WFP, we told the world that 50 million people are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity this year across seven IGAD countries. Today, considering this grim climate forecast, conflicts in the region and in Ukraine, and macro-economic challenges, I solemnly renew our call to national governments, donors, humanitarian, and development actors to adopt a no-regret strategy and help us weather the worse of this crisis.”

ICPAC, the designated Regional Climate Centre by the World Meteorological Organization estimates that the start of the rainy season is likely to be delayed across much of the eastern parts of the region including southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, much of Burundi, and Tanzania. On the other hand, parts of northern Somalia, western Kenya, Uganda, eastern South Sudan, Rwanda, and northern Tanzania are indicated to experience a normal to early onset.

The seasonal forecast by ICPAC is based on an analysis of several global climate model predictions customized for East Africa. In this instance, seven out of the eight models used by ICPAC’s scientists indicate a drier October to December 2022 season thus increasing the reliability of the forecast.