By Silyvia Alusa and Joyce Ojanji

Communities in western Ethiopia, southern and south-western Sudan, and southern Somalia are advised to exercise caution following the above-normal rainfall expected in the next seven days as highlighted by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC).

The exceptional rainfall is likely to cause flooding in these areas, with four percent of the Ethiopian population at risk of being affected by extreme rainfall events. About one percent of Sudan and Somalia’s populations are also exposed to extreme rainfall events.

According to the forecast, southern coastal Somalia and isolated parts of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya will receive moderate rainfall during this period, with light rainfall expected over central Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, western and eastern Kenya, central to southern Somalia, central Ethiopia, and western Eritrea. South Sudan, Uganda and central to northern Ethiopia will receive less-than-usual rainfall.

Meanwhile, warmer than usual temperatures are expected in most parts of the Eastern Africa region. The warmer temperatures will cause elevated heat stress, especially in central to northern Sudan, parts of Eritrea, Djibouti and north-western Somalia.

Other parts of the region are expected to experience moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) during this period apart from Rwanda, Burundi, and parts of central to southern Tanzania, central to western Kenya and central to southern Ethiopia which will experience temperatures below 20℃.

In Kenya, the meteorological department predicts that most parts of the country will remain dry over the next week, with intermittent cold and cloudy conditions expected over Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, Southeastern lowlands, and the Rift Valley.

Moreover, strong and high-speed southerly to south-easterly winds are expected over some parts of the Coast, the South-eastern lowlands, North-eastern and Northwestern Kenya.

According to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), temperatures exceeding 30°C will be experienced in some parts of the Coast, North-eastern and North-western Kenya during the day. Parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley and the Central Rift Valley will experience low temperatures parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley and the Central Rift Valley.