By Sharon Atieno
For the next four weeks (21 June to 18 July), most parts of Eastern Africa are forecasted to be dry except over parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan and Uganda, IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) says.
According to the Sub-seasonal weekly forecasts, the three areas are expected to receive rainfall above 20mm in the first week, which will increase over the following three weeks.
The total amount of rainfall is expected to slightly increase over the northern part of the region in week two while total rainfall over Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Uganda in week three is forecasted to be higher than in week two. However, total rainfall conditions forecast in week three are expected to persist to week four over the region.
In Ethiopia, the rainfall is expected to be less than usual in week one of the forecast period while in the remaining three weeks rainfall is expected to be more than usual.
Though total rainfall in Kenya is expected to be less than usual in the first three weeks, in week four, total rainfall is forecast to be more than the usual over the country.
In the first week, rainfall is forecasted to be less than usual over Somalia but with a slight increase in the second week. However, from week three to four, less than usual total rainfall is expected over the country.
In the first two weeks, rainfall is forecasted to be less than usual over South Sudan while more than usual total rainfall is expected in weeks three and four of the forecast period.
Both Uganda and Tanzania are forecasted to receive less than the usual rainfall for a period of three and four weeks respectively. However, the total rainfall in Uganda in week four will be slightly more than usual.
Temperature
Minimum temperature in most parts of the region is expected to be near usual throughout the four weeks except over northern Sudan, which is expected to be warmer than usual.
On the other hand, maximum temperatures are forecasted to be warmer than the usual over parts of Eritrea, Kenya, South Sudan, and Sudan. In the first two weeks the maximum temperatures will continue in most parts but in week three and four, the temperatures are expected to decrease to near usual.
Impacts
The Sub-seasonal weekly forecasts predict that the drier than usual conditions expected in week one are likely to affect the growing season over the northern parts of the region. Consequently, farmers in the affected areas are advised to put in place mitigative measures in anticipation of the above.
Moreover, it notes that the more than usual rainfall expected over parts of Ethiopia and South Sudan is likely to bring relief to the water stressed region; thus, stakeholders are urged to do water harvesting.
