By Gift Briton
Most East African regions may continue to receive above-normal rainfall and increased temperatures between June to September 2024, according to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC).
The increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall is expected in Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan, and Sudan.
While early onset of rains is expected in central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan, a delayed onset is likely in Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan.
“The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) stands as a region that is highly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, which pose significant challenges to the resilience of our communities. The forecasted wetter-than-normal conditions for June to September 2024 echo the patterns of 1998 and 2010, highlighting the level of impact especially for South Sudan and Sudan, which may experience impacts of floods,” notes Dr. Guleid Artan, Director- ICPAC.
On the other hand, parts of northern Somalia, isolated areas over western Ethiopia, and north-western South Sudan are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions.
The temperature forecast for the season shows a probability of warmer-than-normal conditions across the region, particularly over northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
“As we observe these recurring extreme climate events, it is important to acknowledge the pivotal role played by early warning systems which serve as key instruments of preparedness, guiding us through climate variability. Through our operations, ICPAC continues to provide actionable climate information that is relevant and key for Early Action,” Dr. Artan adds.
