By Gift Briton
Parts of western Ethiopia and South Sudan are bracing for intense rainfall that could rank among the highest 10% on record, according to the latest weekly forecast from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
The forecast warns of rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile across these areas, signaling potentially dangerous conditions that could trigger flooding and disrupt communities already vulnerable to climate extremes.
Beyond these exceptional zones, above-normal rainfall is expected across broader areas of western Ethiopia, northeastern and western South Sudan, southeastern Sudan, and isolated pockets of western Kenya and southern Tanzania.
However, while some areas prepare for potential flooding, most parts of Somalia, Uganda, southern Ethiopia, and sections of northern and southern South Sudan face below-normal rainfall conditions.
Moderate 50-200mm precipitation is forecast for most of South Sudan, southern Sudan, and western Ethiopia. Light rainfall of less than 50mm is expected across most of Uganda, Rwanda, western and coastal Kenya, southern and eastern Tanzania, central to southern Somalia, central Ethiopia, western Eritrea, southern Sudan, and southeastern South Sudan.
According to ICPAC, most of the Greater Horn of Africa will experience warmer-than-usual conditions, with particularly elevated heat stress levels forecasted for Ethiopia’s Afar region, southern Sudan, and northern coastal Somalia.
High temperatures exceeding 32°C are expected across southern Sudan, coastal Eritrea, northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, and coastal areas of northern Somalia.
The majority of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, northwestern and coastal Tanzania, northern and eastern Kenya, Somalia, Eritrea, and southeastern Ethiopia will see moderate to high temperatures ranging from 20-32°C.
Only parts of northern Sudan and scattered areas across the region are expected to experience cooler-than-usual temperatures, relieving the otherwise warm conditions.
