By Sharon Atieno
With the enabling policies in place, artificial intelligence (AI) is set to boost cross-border trade nearly 40 percent by 2040. This is due to its potential to lower trade costs, boost productivity and create new avenues for services production and exports.
This is according to the World Trade Report 2025 titled “Making trade and AI work together to the benefit of all.” It builds on the World Trade Report 2024, which examined how trade can support inclusive growth, and Trading with Intelligence, the World Trade Organization (WTO)’s study on AI and trade, which was also published in 2024.
The development and deployment of AI are also projected to generate substantial global GDP increases, ranging from 12 to 13 percent across scenarios.
In a scenario in which low- and middle-income economies narrow their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies by 50 percent and adopt AI more widely, these economies are projected to see incomes rising by 15 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
“AI is already reshaping our economies and our societies. Though not without risks of its own, AI has the capacity to transform the ways we produce, consume, and trade,” Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO’s Director General, said during the report’s release at the WTO Public Forum.
“One key finding from our survey is that the private sector is already seeing tangible trade-related benefits from AI uptake: 90 per cent of firms using AI report improved efficiency in managing trade risks or compliance with border procedures.”
The report estimates that trade itself is a powerful enabler for an inclusive AI transformation. It estimates that global trade in AI-enabling goods, including raw materials, semiconductors and intermediate inputs, totaled USD 2.3 trillion in 2023.
However, the transformative potential of AI is not guaranteed for all.Unequal access to digital infrastructure, skills and hardware risk deepening divides.
“This means that the potential for trade and AI to foster inclusive growth can only be realized if we act deliberately, by closing digital divides, investing in education and training and deploying appropriate labour adjustment policies, and maintain an open and predictable trading environment,” Johanna Hill, WTO’s Deputy Director General, said during a press briefing.
Calling for the need for open and predictable trade policies, the report notes that the number of quantitative restrictions applied to AI-related goods has soared, from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024. This is driven by high- and upper-middle-income economies. Access to AI-enabling goods remains uneven, with bound tariffs reaching up to 45% in some low-income economies.
Investing in education and training and deploying appropriate labour market policies can help avoid a widening of inequality within economies, the report adds.
The report emphasizes the role of the WTO in helping to deliver inclusive access to AI and its benefits. The organization provides a forum for WTO members to discuss AI-related trade measures, the report notes, highlighting that 80 specific trade concerns raised at the WTO have focused on AI. Dedicated discussions on AI and inclusive trade have also taken place in the context of the Work Programme on E-Commerce.
“Whether AI becomes a force for broadly-shared prosperity or widening inequality will depend on the choices we make today and in the months and years ahead. The WTO stands ready to support members to ensure that AI and trade work together for the benefit of all,” said Dr. Okonjo-Iweala.
