By Milliam Murigi
The escalating conflict between Iran and the United States is beginning to send shockwaves through global agriculture, raising fears of disruptions in fertilizer supply.
Experts warn that farmers could soon face higher fertilizer prices and increased production expenses as global supply chains come under pressure.
The war has disrupted fertilizer production and exports in the Middle East, a key global supplier of agricultural inputs such as urea, ammonia and sulphur used in crop production.
“The timing of the crisis is particularly worrying for the agricultural sector. Farmers in several countries are about to begin applying fertilizer for upcoming crop cycles, meaning any supply shock could directly affect crop yields,” says Chris Vlachopoulos from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS).
A major concern is disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime route that handles a third of global fertilizer trade. The near-closure of the route has made shipping traffic to fall sharply due to security risks and higher insurance costs, constraining global fertilizer supplies.
Market activity has also slowed as participants wait for greater clarity, with some producers expected to hold back offers for up to 10 days while assessing the evolving situation.
A market analysis done recently shows that fertilizer prices have already started rising sharply. Global urea prices have surged by as much as 35 percent to three-year highs as buyers are scrambling for alternative supply after the US-Iran war disrupted shipments and production in the Middle East.
“The fertilizer market was already under pressure before the Middle East crisis due to gas shortages, export restrictions and geopolitical tensions affecting key suppliers. The latest conflict could intensify those strains,” says Vlachopoulos.
Fertilizers are among the largest costs in crop production. Any increase in prices can significantly raise production expenses for farmers, particularly in developing countries that rely heavily on imports.
For Kenya, the global disruption could have direct consequences because the country imports most of the fertilizer used by its farmers. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics shows that Kenya imported about 443,701 metric tonnes of fertilizer between January and June 2025, valued at roughly Sh25.8 billion.
According to a sector analysis by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Kenya imports about 690,000 tonnes of fertilizer annually, most of it nitrogen-based products such as NPK, diammonium phosphate (DAP) and urea. This heavy dependence on imports leaves Kenyan farmers exposed to global shocks.
Fertilizer is one of the most important farm inputs in Kenya, especially for crops such as maize, tea, wheat and horticultural produce. If global fertilizer prices rise further due to the Middle East conflict, farmers may be forced to reduce fertilizer use, which could lower crop yields and affect food supply.
The government has attempted to cushion farmers from high fertilizer prices through subsidy programmes implemented by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development. These programmes distribute subsidized fertilizer through the National Cereals and Produce Board depots across the country. However, the global supply disruptions can still influence local availability and prices.
War-related damage to plants and infrastructure is also expected to prolong the disruption even further even if the Strait of Hormuz opens soon. Already QatarEnergy has stopped production of urea and ammonia after halting output of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on 2 March and then declaring a force majeure.
“The uncertainty is also rippling across ammonia, sulphur and phosphates markets, where trade has slowed, prices are firming and logistical constraints are forcing buyers to seek alternative suppliers while freight costs and shipping risks continue to rise,” adds Vlachopoulos.
