By Dickens Okinyi
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has issued a stark warning that the world remains far from achieving the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
The findings were presented during the launch of the Emissions Gap Report 2025.
According to Antonio Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General, despite some progress, current commitments are not enough to prevent climate breakdown.
He noted that if all current national climate pledges, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), were fully implemented by 2035, global warming would reach approximately 2.3°C—a slight improvement from 2.6°C projected last year, but still far above the 1.5°C target.
“That is progress, but nowhere near enough,” Guterres said. “Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable, starting at the latest in the early 2030s. The path to a livable future gets steeper by the day, but this is no reason to surrender—it is a reason to step up and speed up.”
Guterres emphasized that achieving the 1.5°C goal remains possible if the world meaningfully increases its emissions reductions and transitions swiftly from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
He urged leaders to triple renewable energy capacity, double energy efficiency by 2030, and phase out coal, oil, and gas expansion in a just and equitable manner.
Guterres also called for a “quantum leap” in climate finance for developing nations, stressing that renewable energy offers a clear path toward economic resilience, job creation, and cleaner air. “The clean energy revolution must reach everyone, everywhere,” he said.
Inger Andersen, the UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Director of UNEP, highlighted that only about one in three countries had submitted updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by September 2025. Although some progress has been made, the new pledges remain insufficient to keep global temperature rise within safe limits.
“While the new NDCs do show some progress and do narrow the emissions gap, these pledges are still not strong enough,” Andersen stated. She added that global warming projections for this century remain between 2.3°C and 2.5°C, compared to 2.6°C to 2.8°C in last year’s report—a marginal improvement.
Andersen noted that the world is not even on track to meet the 2030 pledges and that policies currently in place could lead to a 2.8°C increase in global temperatures. She cautioned that this trajectory would likely result in exceeding the 1.5°C threshold within the next decade.
“We must accept the hard truth that multi-decade average global temperatures will overshoot and exceed 1.5 degrees very likely within the next decade,” she said. “The task is to make that overshoot minimal and temporary.”
Andersen emphasized that every fraction of a degree matter, as even small increases lead to greater climate-related disasters, loss of biodiversity, and economic damage. She added that renewable energy remains a key solution, with wind and solar power showing immense potential to bridge the gap.
The report’s chief scientific editor, Dr. Anne Olhof, presented detailed data showing that global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 57.7 gigatons in 2024—a 2.3% increase from the previous year. She explained that emissions rose across all sectors, driven largely by fossil fuel use, deforestation, and land-use change.
Olhof said that although several G20 members have submitted new emissions targets, the combined efforts still fall short of what is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. Even with full implementation of current NDCs, emissions reductions by 2035 would only reach 12% to 15% compared to 2019 levels, far below the 35% required.
“Every fraction of a degree of global warming avoided matters,” Olhof stressed. “It limits the escalation of risks, damages, and adverse health impacts that are already being experienced today, especially among the poorest and most vulnerable.”
Despite the grim data, Olhof highlighted areas of hope. She pointed out that renewable technologies are now cheaper and more efficient than ever before, offering countries an opportunity to transition to clean energy while boosting economies and creating jobs.
“The solutions needed to pull through are available and affordable,” she said. “They can deliver stronger economic growth, better human health, and greater resilience.”
The Emissions Gap Report 2025 concludes that while progress has been made since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, urgent and coordinated global action is essential to prevent catastrophic climate impacts. UNEP urged governments, especially G20 members, to increase their mitigation efforts and deliver credible, time-bound commitments.
As Andersen summed up, “Now is the time for all countries to go all in and invest in their future so that we can finally start hitting the right climate targets.”
