By Duncan Mboyah
Scientists have cautioned against the frequency and intensity of heavy rains in most Horn of Africa (HOA) regions in the coming years.
Dr. Teferi Demissie, a Senior Scientist at the Nairobi-based International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), said that a study they did between 2023 and May 2024 in the region found that an increase in intense precipitation could lead to a rise in flood hazards in areas where intense rain typically triggers inundations.
The study titled ‘Current and projected changes in climate extremes and agro-climatic zones over East Africa’ says that crop and livestock production will likely be at high risk in the region.
“Climate changes are projected for Eastern Africa, with some areas like southern Tanzania experiencing alterations towards drier zones while others like northern Somalia and South Sudan will experience a shift towards wetter zones,” Dr. Demissie said during a side event in Nairobi.
Dr. Demissie added that drought indicators suggest that the frequency of extreme dry events associated with drought will likely decrease over most parts of East Africa except over some regions such as in Tanzania.
Dr. Demissie, who is also the lead researcher for the study noted that projections show that all heat stress indicators will be amplified in warmer future climates.
He said that the increase in short-duration heavy precipitation events together with the enhanced pace of heat stress over the region, will have critical implications for agriculture in general and local livestock production in particular.
The scientist observed that diverse climatic conditions in the region have resulted in different land use patterns and, hence, agricultural practices such as crop cultivation in the wet and livestock production in the semi-arid and arid regions.
“In most semi-arid regions, livestock production enables farmers to diversify incomes and is crucial for coping mechanisms in the poor households”, he added.
Dr. Demissie noted that the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are also projected to increase with increased Greenhouse gas emission (GHG).
According to Dr. Demissie, the study’s results will enhance our understanding of how climate change affects various climate stressors and shift the locations of suitable environmental factors for livestock production in the region, aiding in choosing suitable adaptation strategies.
The study that was conducted in Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi analyzed livestock-specific extreme climate hazards and the impacts of climate change.
It focused on both the present and future climates, using data from the global climate models and two future emission scenarios.
